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An integrated perspective,on the future of mobility. October 2016,EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, To view a city from above is to observe a world in ten million people provide the conditions for change. motion Trains carry people to and from work taxis, circulate in abstract patterns trucks deliver goods and What then will be the future of urban mobility A new. carry away garbage pedestrians hustle down city blocks report An integrated perspective on the future of. cyclists zip through traffic Mobility is the lifeblood of mobility seeks to answer that question To do so it. our cities and essential for urban life explores how a number of existing social economic. and technological trends will work together to disrupt. Yet our desire for mobility has consequences cities mobility at the local level. can be noisy congested and prone to smog Far too, many urban residents spend hours stuck in traffic no The result is a radically different future based around. one can escape airborne pollution Mobility is also a three models of advanced urban mobility that are. critical economic factor both in its own right and as the achievable by 2030 Inevitably individual cities will. means of providing the goods and services that are the make different decisions based on specific local. foundation of economic life Finally mobility matters conditions and go in different directions and. to people whether this is getting to work or school with globally mobility systems in 2030 will on average look. ease visiting friends and relatives or simply exploring very much like they do today. one s surroundings In relatively few places however. does the reality of what is available match the public s Yet there is a cluster of some 50 urban areas that could. aspirations for safe clean reliable and affordable ways lead the way toward one of the three advanced mobility. to get from A to B and back again models These areas have the potential to demonstrate. the profound effects of mobility innovation on, We believe however that the way people move around everything from power systems to the use of public. the urban environment is primed for dramatic change space while simultaneously introducing a new city. Already new business models as illustrated by dynamism. organizations such as Uber and Didi Chuxing are, changing traditional mobility patterns Technological The mobility systems of the future are likely to be very. innovations in the form of electrification connectivity different from what exists in most of the world today. and autonomy are on the horizon Increasing urbani The individual traveler is at the heart of this evolution. zation and the growth of megacities with more than so consumers will need to be open to adopting new. technologies and services However both the public and dynamic of mutual reinforcement at work It s not just. private sectors will have roles to play in paving the way one oar in the water but lots of them all pulling in the. same direction,THE VALUE OF AN INTEGRATED PERSPECTIVE. Numerous trends ranging from energy decentralization THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY IN THREE MODELS. to the Internet of Things are likely to come together to Today a small number of cities such as Amsterdam. create drastic changes in mobility systems over the next Singapore and Stockholm are singled out as having. 10 to 15 years effective mobility With varying degrees of emphasis. they have efficient public transit encourage cycling and. Predicting the future is perilous In this case however walking and have managed to limit congestion and. two factors point us in this direction First several pollution By 2030 we expect a number of additional. key mobility trends electrification shared mobility systems to be at the leading edge of the next phase of. and autonomy are poised to take off The costs of advanced mobility. a lithium ion battery pack fell 65 percent from 2010. to 2015 and they are expected to drop below 100 per In broad terms the best will combine shared mobility. kilowatt hour over the next decade Car sharing and autonomy and electrification with integrated energy. ride hailing services are already at work in hundreds systems public transport and infrastructure In specific. of cities around the world enabled by smartphones terms cities will navigate these possibilities differently. and backed by substantial venture capital An array of Local conditions such as population density wealth. established automotive and technology companies the state of road and public transit infrastructure. as well as intriguing start ups like nuTonomy and pollution and congestion levels and local governance. Zoox are testing self driving capabilities with the capabilities will determine what changes occur and. aim of providing door to door travel with no human how quickly. intervention required, For the near future in cities leading the advance we. Second and just as important trends in related areas envision three mobility trajectories with trends such. reinforce one another Urbanization is expected to as sharing autonomous driving and electrification. increase average city density by 30 percent over the next all moving forward at a different pace Each is suited. 15 years stretching existing systems as demand rises to a specific type of metropolitan area whether it be a. Urban planners and residents are putting livability dense developed city a suburban sprawl or an emerging. and sustainability higher on their agendas Increased metropolis. connectivity is opening the door to multiple shared. mobility options and could also help to smooth traffic Clean and Shared Delhi Mexico City and Mumbai are. flows examples of densely populated metropolitan areas in developing. countries They are all experiencing rapid urbanization. Looked at in isolation each trend is significant Their and they all suffer from congestion and poor air quality. combined impact however will prove to be truly For cities like these the widespread use of self driving. powerful For example more shared mobility could cars may not be an option in the short or medium. boost electric vehicle EV sales because shared vehicles term because of poor infrastructure interference from. are used more intensively improving the economics pedestrians a variety of vehicles on the road and a lack. of ownership In turn higher EV production could of clear adherence to traffic regulations The approach. accelerate innovation and reduce the cost of batteries most likely to apply is a shift to cleaner transport in the. That opens up applications in adjacent systems such form of EVs while also limiting private car ownership. as distributed storage And the plummeting cost optimizing shared mobility and expanding public. of distributed power generation could improve the transit In conjunction with some connectivity and. greenhouse gas abatement potential of EVs because autonomy traffic flows and safety could be enhanced. they would get more of their juice from low carbon According to our research if relevant Asian cities move. sources In these and other cases there is a powerful toward this model by 2030 shared vehicles could. account for almost half of passenger miles due to a com In a seamless mobility system people would potentially. bination of greater utilization and more passengers per trip travel more likely by 20 to 50 percent because it. is cheap and easy However the number of cars would. Private Autonomy There are many cities around the likely remain the same or decline due to the high level. world where development and commuting patterns have of sharing and significantly higher utilization EVs could. increased sprawl significantly In such cities having a account for as many as two thirds of vehicles on the road. car is all but essential That will likely remain the case while those capable of self driving may exceed 40 percent. for the foreseeable future However there are genuine. costs to this way of life congestion in Los Angeles costs KNOCK ON EFFECTS. the city an estimated 23 billion per year 1 Combined these three models could apply to around. 50 urban areas globally representing some 500 million. To do better we envision consumers in these cities people but the majority of cities are expected to develop. embracing new vehicle technologies such as self driving more incrementally Cities are most prone to accelerated. and electric vehicles Dedicated road space for example uptake based on a ranking of metrics including income. could be allocated to self driving vehicles Connectivity population government effectiveness level of public. could make it easier to implement demand driven transit development congestion and pollution Each. congestion charges which could increase road capacity model can deliver significant benefits such as saving. while limiting new construction Car sharing and ride time reducing congestion and improving air quality. hailing could emerge as complementary options but We quantified the possible cumulative societal benefits. would not replace the private car on a large scale of each model until 2030 2 800 per person for clean. and shared mostly in the form of improved safety, There is a possible drawback to this scenario with 3 300 for private autonomy boosting 2030 GDP. lower marginal costs to travel an extra mile in an EV by 0 9 percent and 7 400 per person for seamless. and without requiring a driver s attention thanks to mobility boosting 2030 GDP by 3 9 percent. autonomy the demand for mobility could increase and. thus add to congestion Passenger miles traveled could To take full advantage of these benefits and avoid the. grow 25 percent by 2030 with the majority attributable pitfalls the public and private sectors would need to. to additional autonomous travel in private vehicles work together while city officials would need to be. willing to reconsider how they conduct their own, Seamless Mobility This is the most radical departure business For example sharing and autonomy could. from today s reality In the near term it is likeliest to cannibalize public transport systems and cities may. emerge in densely populated high income cities such as consider whether it makes sense to partially shift. Chicago Hong Kong London and Singapore ownership to private shared mobility providers Govern. ments may also want to rewrite fuel and power taxation. In this system mobility is predominantly door to door. and to use the opportunity of connectivity to revisit how. and on demand Travelers have many clean cheap,infrastructure is priced. and flexible ways to get around and the boundaries. among private shared and public transport are blurred These new mobility models will also require. Mobility is delivered through a combination of self a number of sectors to do some hard thinking. driving shared vehicles with high quality public in order to find new opportunities and to avoid some. transit as the backbone EVs become far more common major risks In the power sector for example EVs could. spurred by economics consumer interest incentives represent 3 percent of electricity demand globally and. and the creation of low emission zones And all this is nearly 4 percent in Europe by 2030 Differentiated. enabled through the use of smart software platforms time of use rates and investments in charging in. that manage multimodal traffic flows and deliver frastructure could help utilities to mitigate negative. mobility as a service grid effects from EV charging EVs could also play. a role in reducing curtailment as solar photovoltaic and. 1 INRIX National Traffic Scorecard Annual Report Centre for offshore wind generation increase. Economics and Business Research and INRIX 2013 inrix com. The automotive sector faces a future that could be. fundamentally different from its past and may need to. consider moving from using a pure product ownership. model toward providing a range of transportation ser. vices EVs of course are a direct threat to the internal. combustion engine Gasoline retailers should be thinking. through how to further monetize current assets and. how to capture future value through new propositions. around convenience retail the connected car fleet,services and electric charging For tech companies. the three mobility models offer a world of opportunity. As the use of connectivity and autonomy increases so. too does the need for sensors and software The data. generated could be highly valuable in and of itself. MOVING INTO THE FUTURE,In cities from Tokyo to Vancouver the reality of. changing mobility is already apparent More shifts are. coming These changes will allow people to travel more. efficiently more cheaply more often and in different. ways But the future is not set and there is a strong role. for the public and private sectors to help avoid pitfalls. associated with increased congestion air quality con. cerns and other potential negative outcomes, To best capture the benefits the public and private. sector at a local and global level need to prepare. for the future not wait for it Governments may want. to anticipate these new mobility models by crafting. regulations consistent with consumer friendly techno. logical developments that also promote larger public. goals such as clean air and reduced congestion They. need to think ahead with regard to both replacing the. possible loss of fuel tax revenue and reviewing their. connection with the private sector Strong partnerships. that make it easy to blend public transit and private. mobility will likely produce the best solutions, Why does this matter Because getting mobility right. could be a significant competitive advantage for cities. This shift can help clear the air of pollution and reduce. traffic deaths It is an opportunity to improve the. quality of life day in day out for billions of people. 10 An integrated perspective on the future of mobility Section Heading. INTRODUCTION, Mobility is the lifeblood of our cities every day These issues will come more sharply into focus as cities. metropolitan transport systems bring people to work and suburbs expand By 2030 60 percent of the world s. and to play vehicles deliver food and essential goods population will live in metropolitan areas 2 The number. and carry away waste Mobility is what keeps our urban of megacities with more than ten million people will. centres functioning At the same time mobility is a continue to grow and with them traffic density energy. critical factor in every country s economy both as an consumption pollution and congestion. important sector in its own right and as a significant. growth engine or blocker for many other industries This combination of metropolitan expansion and rapid. including the automotive civil engineering energy innovation will inevitably drive significant change. technology and telecom sectors but what will the future of mobility systems look like. This report seeks to uncover some of the key trends by. Today new business models introduced by companies addressing the following questions how will advanced. such as Uber and Lyft are changing the way we view mobility take shape in different urban environments. mobility systems while technological innovation in the Will society be better or worse off and what will the. form of electrification connectivity and autonomy is set main drivers be Do changes in local mobility systems. to bring additional opportunities to business and urban have global impact If we are to reap the economic and. areas There could also be advantages for wider society societal benefits of advanced mobility systems how. advanced transport could resolve environmental issues could we accelerate our move towards them. and improve citizens health Too often though our, mobility systems cease to function efficiently streets. become clogged blighted by congestion and pollution. and less safe as increasing numbers of vehicles stress. the available infrastructure, 2 McKinsey Automotive Revolution perspective towards 2030. January 2016,01 MANY FAST MOVING TRENDS AFFECT MOBILITY. Vehicle electrification,Shared mobility,Autonomous driving 18. Connectivity and the internet of things 19,Public transit 21. Liveability and sustainability 21,Urbanization and other macroeconomic trends 21. Decentralization of the energy system 21, Reinforcing effects and the need for an integrated perspective 22. 02 ACCELERATED UPTAKE IN CITIES, Clean and Shared likely for developing dense metropolitan areas. Private Autonomy likely for developed suburban sprawl. Seamless Mobility likely for dense developed metropolitan areas 39. Accelerated local uptake is globally relevant 43,There is a compelling case to accelerate 43. 03 KNOCK ON EFFECTS ACROSS SECTORS,Blurring boundaries. Power sector,Oil sector 53,Automotive sector 54,Public sector 56. Technology sector 57,04 CONCLUSIONS LOOKING AHEAD 61. 14 An integrated perspective on the future of mobility Section Heading. MANY FAST MOVING TRENDS,AFFECT MOBILITY, The rst part of this chapter VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION. Global electric vehicle EV sales have risen quickly. discusses various fast over the past five years fueled by generous purchase. moving trends that in uence subsidies falling battery costs fuel economy. mobility systems Some are regulations growing commitments from car companies. and rising interest from consumers Sales rose 60 percent. core mobility trends vehicle in 2015 alone to nearly 450 000 up from 50 000 in. electri cation shared mobility 2011 Exhibit 1 While many of the early adopters. and autonomous driving were in the United States Europe and China have since. while ancillary trends include ramped up significantly In most markets though EVs. still represent fewer than 1 percent of total vehicles. connectivity and the Internet sold but pockets of much higher penetration exist. of Things urbanization and including Norway where electric vehicles represent. other macroeconomic trends more than a quarter of new vehicle sales. and the decentralization of The average price of lithium ion battery packs used. power generation and storage in EVs fell 65 percent over the period 2010 15 from. 1 000 kWh to 350 kWh and continues to drop, On an individual basis each of these trends will have driven by scale improvements in battery chemistry. a major impact on specific aspects of the mobility sector and better battery management systems 3 Costs have. More significant however is their combined impact fallen further and faster than many had expected They. and potential to reinforce and magnify one another are now forecast to drop below 100 kWh in the next. which in turn affects the broader mobility system Thus decade and could possibly fall as low as 50 kWh. later in this chapter we explore these reinforcing effects 60 kWh in the longer term if semi solid electrolytes. and discuss why it is important to take an integrated and silicon infused anodes are implemented along with. perspective, 3 Throughout this report the term Electric Vehicle or EV. is used for battery electric vehicles and plug in hybrid electric. vehicles Hybrid electric vehicles without a plug are not addressed.
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