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ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT December 2013,Copyright 2013 Messe Berlin GmbH. All rights reserved The contents of this report may be quoted provided the source is given. accurately and clearly Distribution or reproduction in full or in part is permitted for own. or internal use only, The presentation of material in this publication and the designations employed do not imply. the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of Messe Berlin or any of its components. Prepared on behalf of ITB Berlin by,IPK International. Gottfried Keller Strasse 20,D 81245 Munich,Contact Barbara Postel Senior Consultant. Tel 49 89 8292 370,Fax 49 89 8292 3726,Website www ipkinternational com. Email info ipkinternational com,Published and printed by. Messe Berlin GmbH,Messedamm 22,D 14055 Berlin,Contact Astrid Zand Press Officer. Tel 49 30 3038 2275,Fax 49 30 3038 2141,Website www messe berlin de. Email zand messe berlin de,www itb berlin com academy. Printed on environmentally friendly paper,ITB WORLD TRAVEL TRENDS REPORT 2013 14. Foreword 3, A World travel and tourism outpaces low gear global economy 4. B Europe shakes off economic woes with good tourism year 11. C Asia booms as Chinese travel soars 14,D South America outpaces North America again 18. E Young travellers head for new horizons 20,F Is Sleep Cheap the next mega trend 22. G Travel industry should get mobile 25,H Africa The lion slowly stirs 27. Dear reader, This ITB World Travel Trends Report 2013 14 was again. commissioned by ITB Berlin from IPK International, organisers of the 21st annual World Travel Monitor. Forum held at San Giuliano Terme near Pisa Italy in. late October 2013, The report covers the main trends in outbound travel. demand for the first eight months of 2013 together. with estimates for the full year and also contains initial. forecasts for 2014 as presented at the Pisa forum as. it is widely known, In addition it focuses on various topics and market segments that were discussed at the forum. These include the role of mobile technology and social media the growing youth travel market. trends in the hospitality sector the potential of Africa and perspectives on sustainability. As the following sections make clear the world travel industry achieved good growth this year. despite the uncertain world economy Outbound travel grew by 4 in terms of trips while spen. ding grew by 6 Emerging markets such as China and Russia were again the top success stories. with high growth rates for outbound travel while Asia and Europe performed well as tourist. destinations, The outlook for 2014 is rosy with a 4 5 growth forecast by IPK s World Travel Monitor for out. bound travel as the world economy gradually improves Emerging markets will remain the main. growth drivers next year but both Europe and North America are expected to show solid growth. As usual the Pisa forum was organised in co operation with the European Travel Commission. ETC Some 50 experts from around the world including all regions of Europe along with North. and South America and parts of Asia Pacific took part They represented international orga. nisations national and regional tourism organisations and associations international research. institutes and private companies from travel and tourism and related sectors. ITB Berlin is delighted to continue its close association with IPK International and the Pisa forum. for the ninth consecutive year In March 2014 at the ITB Berlin Convention Rolf Freitag will present. updated figures for 2013 as well as current forecasts for 2014. In the meantime we wish you happy reading,Dr Martin Buck David Ruetz Rolf Freitag. Vice President Travel Logistics Head of ITB Berlin President CEO. Messe Berlin IPK International,World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014. Section A World Travel Trends, World travel and World travel and tourism have grown faster than the global economy. tourism outpaces low this year with a 4 rise in international trips Emerging markets such as. gear global economy China and Russia were again the top success stories with high growth. rates for outbound travel while Asia and Europe performed well as tourist. destinations The outlook for 2014 is rosy with a 4 5 growth forecast. for outbound travel as the world economy gradually improves These. were the key findings of this year s 21st World Travel Monitor Forum. held in Pisa at the end of October 2013, Improving global After several years of gloomy news about the world economy prospects. economic outlook for the next few years are gradually brightening up This improving eco. supports travel nomic outlook will support further growth for the international travel. and tourism and tourism sector Dr Gernot Nerb an economic expert at the Munich. based Ifo Institute for Economic Research told forum participants The. tourism industry around the world will undoubtedly benefit from the. global economic recovery forecast at 2 8 and from the unanimously. positive forecasts for every major economic zone he commented We. are on an upward path for the next two years, Nerb was also upbeat about Europe after a two year period of economic. depression and predicted that every eurozone economy except Greece. and Cyprus could grow in 2014 Due to the strength of the euro interna. tional travellers from eurozone countries benefited from a favourable. dollar exchange rate and greater purchasing power In addition prospects. for BRIC economies remain good despite slowing growth in some coun. tries e g China and Brazil and middle class consumers in these markets. would continue to have more disposable income for travel he emphasised. IPK sees good World outbound travel grew solidly this year according to results from. growth for IPK International s World Travel Monitor WTM presented at the Pisa. international travel forum Based on the trends of the first eight months the volume of out. bound trips will grow by 4 to 947 million in 2013 and the number of. overnight stays will also increase by 4 to just over 7 5 billion nights by. the year s end This was the first time for several years that the average. length of an international trip just below 8 nights did not decrease. There was also a slight rise in spending With average spending of. US 1 659 per foreign trip world outbound travel turnover grew by. 6 to US 1 571 billion according to the World Travel Monitor which. covers 90 of world outbound markets,World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014. These figures represent solid demand despite financial crises recessions. political turmoil and civil unrest in various parts of the world Rolf Freitag. president of IPK International said Without a doubt travelling continues. to be a global mega trend Already today one third of the human race. is travelling Moreover this year s figures maintain the good growth. rates seen since 2010 They have led to new record numbers for out. bound trips and overnight stays for the last few years The graph below. shows annual and cumulative growth rates since the crisis year of 2009. World travel trends change in over respective previous year. 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD,cumulative,Outbound trips 7 5 4 4 22. Outbound nights 5 4 2 4 16,7 8 4 5 28,spending in US. Source World Travel Monitor 2013 IPK International. 4 5 growth The outlook for world outbound travel in 2014 is good the World Travel. forecast for 2014 Monitor showed Based on the survey results IPK forecasts a robust. growth of 4 5 for the worldwide international travel market in 2014. Looking further ahead to 2020 IPK predicted that modest growth in. the developed world will mainly come from more trips per inhabitant. leading to a higher travel frequency In contrast emerging markets will. grow fast due to a surge in first time visitors The new world middle. class is expected to double by 2030 resulting in 1 5 billion more middle. class people eager to travel around the world This will change the. picture of world travel over the long term Regions such as Asia and the. Middle East are expected to close the travel gap with mature markets. Europe North America Japan Australia NZ while growth in the South. is predicted to be led by countries such as Brazil and India The following. map displays the current travel levels around the world. World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014, Asia Middle East and The strong growth of international travel by people in emerging econo. Latin America are top mies around the world was once again the dominant element of regional. regional growth markets travel trends in 2013 Regions such as Asia the Middle East and Latin. America grew strongly driven by the growth of first time travellers from. the new middle class in countries such as China and Brazil The large out. bound markets of Europe and North America generated solid growth at. high levels The graph below shows the regional trends since 2011. World regional travel trends trips change in over respective previous. 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014 forecasts,World 5 4 4 4 5,Europe 4 2 2 5 3 4. North America 1 3 3 3,Asia Pacific 6 7 8 9,South America 7 12 6 6. Source World Travel Monitor 2013 IPK International. World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014, China and Russia In terms of individual outbound travel markets the traditional Big Three. join the world Germany the USA and the UK are now being challenged strongly in. travel leaders the rankings Germany 2 the USA 1 and the UK 3 grew. moderately this year However China continued its dramatic growth. with a 26 rise in outbound trips this year and is now number one for. total spending number two for the volume of trips and number four for. the quantity of overnight stays Russia too is growing fast with a 12. increase in trips this year and is now number five in terms of overnight. stays Brazil 6 is also rising steadily up the travel league The following. graph shows the world s six largest outbound travel markets. Rank Trips 1 nights Overnight Stays Spending,1 Germany Germany China. 2 China UK USA,3 USA USA Germany,4 UK China UK,5 France Russia Japan. 6 Canada France Canada, Source World Travel Monitor 2013 IPK International. Note for further details about regional and national market trends please. see the regional sections of this report, World travel trends In terms of different market segments leisure travel is clearly outgrowing. international tourists business travel Over the last five years spending on holidays has grown. head for cities and by 25 and on Visiting Family Friends VFR by 17 while business. tour more travel only increased by 16, Since 2009 the volume of city trips has increased by 47 Tours grew by 27. thanks to more long haul trips putting both segments ahead of the overall. 25 growth in foreign holidays In contrast the largest segment sun beach. holidays grew only by 12 while countryside trips declined by 10. World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014, Tours and city holidays by consumers in emerging markets have driven. tourism growth in the last four years Rolf Freitag said. Source World Travel Monitor 2013 IPK International. MICE bite a bigger In the business travel market there has been an interesting shift in. slice off the business demand The so called MICE sector Meetings Incentives Conferences. travel pie Exhibitions has grown much faster than traditional business travel. since 2009 Substantial cuts in corporate travel spending are a key reason. behind this trend Over the first eight months of 2013 the MICE segment. grew by 6 while traditional business travel shrank by 10 the World. Travel Monitor showed The MICE segment now accounts for 54 of the. total business travel market Within the MICE segment incentives 61. conventions 44 and conferences 27 have all grown strongly. since 2009 on a cumulative basis while traditional company trips have. declined by 10, Online bookings The internet increased its dominance as a booking channel to 65 this. close to saturation year with a 10 rise in bookings while travel agency bookings increased. level by just 4 resulting in a market share of 24 Mobile bookings are. growing fast but at 2 remain small on an overall basis In mature travel. markets online booking seems to be close to saturation with a market. share of about 70 Freitag pointed out In these markets the down. ward trend for travel agency bookings seems to have stopped at around. 20 Moreover travel agents were again able to even increase their. market share slightly since emerging markets with a high proportion of. first time travellers still need the support of travel agencies. World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014, World Tourism World tourism is continuing to power ahead this year after a new record. Organization expects in 2012 when international arrivals broke through the one billion barrier. another record year for the first time John Kester tourism trends director of the World. Tourism Organization UNWTO told forum participants International. arrivals grew by 4 to 1 035 billion last year and have increased by a. further 5 3 to 747 million over the first eight months of 2013 according. to UNWTO figures In response to this positive trend the UNWTO has. upgraded its original full year forecast for 2013 of 3 4 growth made. at the start of this year We are likely to end the year with a near 5. rise Kester said However for 2014 the UNWTO is more cautious at. present due to the uncertain global economic situation. WTTC world tourism Although travel tourism is growing in volume terms the industry s. turnover growth overall turnover growth has slowed slightly this year according to the. is slowing down World Travel Tourism Council WTTC which represents the industry s. private sector The industry s total contribution to world GDP is now. expected to grow by 2 9 in 2013 compared to the initial forecast of. 3 2 research manager Rochelle Turner told the forum This is mostly. due to a decline in investments in tourism she explained The travel. tourism industry directly contributes US 2 1 trillion US 2 100 billion to. the world economy according to the WTTC This figure rises to more. than US 6 trillion when incorporating indirect effects representing. about 9 of global GDP Moreover the sector employs 102 million peo. ple representing 8 7 of all jobs worldwide Travel and tourism is also. a significant employer of women and young people in many economies. around the world Turner underlined, Air travel is taking off The positive figures were echoed by two aviation specialists Olivier Jager. CEO of aviation data company ForwardKeys said international air. bookings had increased globally by 3 in the first 10 months of the year. based on bookings processed by the main GDS worldwide International. bookings were as of 26th October 2 5 higher in the final two months. of the year Ricky Mack Director Aviation Systems Analysis for Boeing. Commercial Airplanes said world airline passenger travel is growing at. around 5 so far this year and is resilient outperforming the below. average world economic growth Load factors so far are slightly better. than last year while fares were generally stable compared to 2012 he. told the forum Looking ahead he predicted that emerging markets led. by China India Brazil and Russia would drive passenger growth in the. years ahead,World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014, Global hotel The hotel industry is also having a strong year in 2013 as Wolfgang. occupancy improves Schlamminger Forecast Research Analyst at the leading hospitality. but rates fluctuate data research company STR Global in London told the Pisa forum Occu. pancy rates are rising in most regions of the world due to healthy. demand whereas only North America Central South America and the. Middle East were able to record positive growth in average daily rate. ADR according to the company s analysis of data from over 47 000. hotels worldwide, In Europe demand increased about 3 over the first nine months of the. year while hotel capacity grew only slightly As a result the average. occupancy rate rose by 2 2 although the ADR weakened by 1 5 STR. Global s data showed 2012 was quite a busy year for Europe with the. European Championship in Poland and Ukraine and the Olympic Games. in London Therefore it is not a surprise that ADR shows a 1 5 decrease. in 2013 Schlamminger commented Southern Europe is recovering well. in terms of hotel occupancy and prices this year while prices are falling in. Northern and Eastern Europe although occupancy is rising North. America is also performing well this year Demand was up 2 well ahead. of low capacity growth pushing the occupancy rate up by 1 5 and the. average room price rose by 3 9, In Asia however supply has grown faster than demand for the first time. in two years Schlamminger pointed out The active pipeline based on. hotel rooms in Asia suggests an additional 13 rise in capacity in the. next few years The region s occupancy rate weakened slightly by 0 4. and the average rate dropped by 3 5 In contrast demand outpaced. supply significantly in the Middle East in the first three quarters of this. year and the region s active hotel room pipeline remains hot with 37. more capacity being planned or constructed at present Occupancy. improved by 3 3 and the average daily rate rose by 3 6. World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014,Section B European travel trends. Europe shakes off Europe has had a good year for outbound and inbound travel and. economic difficulties tourism in 2013 despite the continent s economic problems Higher. with a good growth is predicted for outbound travel next year while inbound travel. tourism year might be somewhat slower according to experts at the Pisa forum. Outbound travel European outbound travel has shown solid moderate growth at a high. grows solidly in 2013 level this year Outbound trips grew by 2 5 from January to August. 2013 according to the European Travel Monitor from IPK International. Overnight stays increased by 2 and spending rose by 1 Europeans. again went on shorter trips this year with the average length of one stay. dropping by 2 to 7 9 nights This trend already apparent in recent. years was due to a combination of more short trips 9 and fewer. long trips 1 Spending went up by 1 overall Spending per night. went up by 2 to 114 but the average spending per trip dropped by. 1 to 904 due to the shorter average length of trips. Most European source markets grew solidly this year although there. were extremes at both ends of the range Russia was Europe s fastest. growing outbound travel market this year with a 12 increase in. outbound trips in the first eight months of the year and France was. surprisingly strong in view of the country s weak economy with a 5. rise Sweden and the UK both 3 also grew well and German trips incre. ased by 2 In contrast Spain 4 and Italy 5 again slumped due to. their economic problems, Source World Travel Monitor 2013 IPK International. World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014, European outbound growth was equally spread between short haul and. long haul destinations with a 2 rise in each The main overseas. winners in terms of attracting more European visitors were South. America 9 the Pacific 6 and Africa 3 while Asia 2, Central America 2 and North America 1 had more moderate rises. In contrast European travel to the Caribbean slumped by 8. The leisure travel market has surpassed the overall market so far this. year Holidays were up by 3 and other leisure travel increased by 4. All major types of holiday grew well with strong growth for countryside. visits 12 and snow holidays 8 in particular with moderate. growth for sun beach holidays 3 and city trips 2 In contrast. European business travel declined by 1 as companies cut back on travel. spending given the tough business climate in many countries Bookings. via the internet continued to grow fast rising by 12 while bookings. through travel agencies rose only by 3, Solid growth of 3 4 Looking ahead to 2014 slightly more Europeans 38 vs 36 last year. forecast for 2014 said the difficult economic conditions would affect their travel planning. for the coming year Nevertheless a stable 28 said they would like to. take more international trips than last year 42 intend to travel as often. as this year and only 9 compared to 11 a year ago plan not to go on. a trip abroad next year IPK therefore predicts that European outbound. travel will grow by 3 4 in 2014, The top outbound growth markets next year are expected to be Russia. 10 Switzerland 7 the UK 7 and Sweden 6 Germany is, likely to grow solidly by 3 while Spain France and the Netherlands are. said to grow moderately but Italy is expected to see a further decline. Source World Travel Intention Survey October 2013 IPK International. World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014, Strong year for Europe had a good year for international tourism in 2012 according to. Destination Europe figures from the UNWTO Arrivals increased by 3 5 to 535 million while. international tourism receipts rose to 353 billion This year is looking. even better with a 5 4 rise to 396 million international arrivals over the. first eight months according to UNWTO figures In response the world. Tourism Organization has raised its 2013 full year forecast for Europe from. 2 3 predicted at the start of the year to 5 However the prospects. for next year are less clear We do not think we will see the same strength. next year said John Kester UNWTO tourism trends director. Similar trends were reported by the European Travel Commission ETC. which represents national tourist boards Europe has generally had a good. year for inbound tourism in 2013 and is looking ahead relatively confi. dently to more growth in 2014 according to an ETC survey among its. members Most countries reported a positive performance in the first. 6 8 months of this year said Leslie Vella of the Malta Tourism Authority. and chairman of the ETC Market Intelligence Group Winners so far this. year with an overall double digit growth in international arrivals are. Iceland Slovakia Serbia and Latvia, The ETC is currently predicting an overall 4 rise in inbound tourism to. European countries in 2013 driven by rising visitor numbers from Russia. Asia and the USA This year most European countries have higher numbers. of visitors from Russia Germany the UK Norway Sweden France and. Switzerland but the picture is more mixed in terms of visitors from the. Netherlands Spain and Italy, For 2014 the organisation forecasts a further 3 rise with growth to be. sustained by a mix of intra European and overseas source markets How. ever there is still a cloud of economic uncertainty hanging over many. destinations Vella cautioned, Southern Europe In regional terms destinations in Central and Southern Europe are doing. outpaces Northern much better than Northern Europe this year In Southern Europe most. Europe countries forecast more tourists this year Malta Portugal and Croatia. for example expect 6 8 growth this year while Italy predicts a 2 5. rise The region is expected to see a further 3 growth in 2014. In Central and Eastern Europe most destinations are generally performing. well this year Germany Switzerland Hungary and Bulgaria all have good. growth while Austria the Czech Republic and Belgium have low growth. The 2014 forecast shows 2 4 growth, In Northern Europe Nordic destinations expect similar international. visitor numbers as last year with lower German visitor numbers balanced. by growth from Russian and Asian markets However the UK is doing. well with a 5 rise this year so far while Ireland expects a 6 growth. this year Northern Europe is expected to see a better performance. 1 4 growth in 2014,World Travel Trends Report 2013 2014. Section C Asia Travel Trends, Asia booms as Asia is one of the world s travel hotspots in 2013 with a strong growth as. Chinese travel soars well for outbound travel and incoming tourism as for domestic travel. and therefore it was also a focal point on the first day of the forum. China is certainly the driving force behind this upward trend in the region. The outlook for next year is also very positive with further high growth. predicted thanks to increasing prosperity in many countries experts. agreed at the Pisa forum, Outbound trips by Asians grew by 8 over the first eight months of. 2013 according to IPK s Asian Travel Monitor The two major markets. however showed dramatic differences Stefanie Grothe research analyst. at IPK International said Outbound trips by Chinese travellers soared by. 26 but the number of Japanese outbound trips declined by 2 For. further details of these two markets see below in the China and Japan. This divergence between Chinese and Japanese outbound markets is. likely to continue in 2014 as well the Asian Travel Monitor found Chine. se outbound travel is expected to grow by a further 18 while the Japa. nese market is predicted to improve slightly to a stable zero growth For. the overall Asian outbound market this means that the number of inter. national trips is likely to increase by a healthy 9 next year. This surge in international travel by Chinese people has reinforced their. clear leadership of the Asian outbound travel market With 45 million. international trips and travel expenditures of US 84 4 billion in 2012 the. Chinese market was already double the size of the Japanese market in. volume terms and nearly 80 larger in terms of spending according to. IPK s World Travel Monitor figures The Japanese took 19 4 million out. bound trips and spent US 47 3 billion on international travel last year. In comparison the other major Asian markets appear small However. they are also growing healthily in terms of international trips and spen. ding The top ten outbound markets in 2012 were,World Travel Monitor 2013 IPK International. Outbound Traveller Outbound Spending USD,China 45 0 mn 84 4 bn. Japan 19 4 mn 47 3 bn,Korea 13 2 mn 19 1 bn,Hong Kong 10 0 mn 13 0 bn. Australia 8 6 mn 23 6 bn,India 7 2 mn 19 0 bn,Indonesia 6 8 mn 4 8 bn. Singapore 6 2 mn 7 5 bn,Malaysia 5 3 mn 7 2 bn,Thailand 3 3 mn 4 3 bn.
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